Latest VTST Update from Dr P

[Old Rigger]

Spitfire, I could not possibly give an opinion one way or the other

Just for a giggle we looked on the computer system for the data on an old Tornado of ours that started at Honington and moved around a bit and is now at Marham, it came into service in 1982 ish has flown 7000 hours and has just reached approx 28 FI, we also looked at a few Hawks but I think you might get the picture that 558 has no FI issues , unless it has been completely cocked up and mis-calculated.

[Gully]

Spitfire, I could not possibly give an opinion one way or the other

Just for a giggle we looked on the computer system for the data on an old Tornado of ours that started at Honington and moved around a bit and is now at Marham, it came into service in 1982 ish has flown 7000 hours and has just reached approx 28 FI, we also looked at a few Hawks but I think you might get the picture that 558 has no FI issues , unless it has been completely cocked up and mis-calculated.

'558's is the highest houred and most fatigued Vulcan airframe. As Sad Sam explained it to me, the airframes were designed for high altitude operation. When they went low-level, fatigue consumption ramped up and at fixed points (fatigue counts) strengthening modifications were added into the airframe structure. These mods were all based upon the performance of the fatigue test specimen which was generally rattled, shaken and flexed in a jig at Woodford for a number of years!

The fatigue meters dictated Mod2222 being done during the restoration (this was the cost the MOD baulked at in 1992/3), then the front spar and landing light apertures mods last Winter. As MF stated, I also recall the figure of 15 FI's being quoted as being made available by these mods: these take us to the point where the final designed modification (involving the leading edge) has to be embodied for '558 to continue to operate. This final mod would add something like a further 30FIs.

I have been told that a display and associated transit uses on average .2 of a fatigue index. On this basis, one can calculate that by 2013 the final mod will be needed (plus some engines may be out of cycles by then). This last modification is allegedly horribly expensive, but would release more flying life...

@ MF - to clarify my point in relation to costs, what I was suggesting was that VTTS effectively sells its engineering services by operating other permit aircraft for their owners in addition to Vulcan duties. Okay, more engineers may be required for this, but I was envisaging some economies of scale being introduced, plus fully utilising the team through the Winter months (during appeals! ).

Gully

[Mayfly]

Spitfire, I could not possibly give an opinion one way or the other

Just for a giggle we looked on the computer system for the data on an old Tornado of ours that started at Honington and moved around a bit and is now at Marham, it came into service in 1982 ish has flown 7000 hours and has just reached approx 28 FI, we also looked at a few Hawks but I think you might get the picture that 558 has no FI issues , unless it has been completely cocked up and mis-calculated.

'558's is the highest houred and most fatigued Vulcan airframe. As Sad Sam explained it to me, the airframes were designed for high altitude operation. When they went low-level, fatigue consumption ramped up and at fixed points (fatigue counts) strengthening modifications were added into the airframe structure. These mods were all based upon the performance of the fatigue test specimen which was generally rattled, shaken and flexed in a jig at Woodford for a number of years!

The fatigue meters dictated Mod2222 being done during the restoration (this was the cost the MOD baulked at in 1992/3), then the front spar and landing light apertures mods last Winter. As MF stated, I also recall the figure of 15 FI's being quoted as being made available by these mods: these take us to the point where the final designed modification (involving the leading edge) has to be embodied for '558 to continue to operate. This final mod would add something like a further 30FIs.

I have been told that a display and associated transit uses on average .2 of a fatigue index. On this basis, one can calculate that by 2013 the final mod will be needed (plus some engines may be out of cycles by then). This last modification is allegedly horribly expensive, but would release more flying life...

@ MF - to clarify my point in relation to costs, what I was suggesting was that VTTS effectively sells its engineering services by operating other permit aircraft for their owners in addition to Vulcan duties. Okay, more engineers may be required for this, but I was envisaging some economies of scale being introduced, plus fully utilising the team through the Winter months (during appeals! :)) ).

Gully

Ah now I understand - I totally agree with that - there is no earned income other than display revenue which we all know doesn't cover the costs.

[Old Rigger]

Gully thanks for that and was fully aware of the what 558 has or has not done and where it sits in flying hours and fatigue.
But .2 FI per flight is rather excessive if true, as most aircraft fly approximately 250 hours to each 1 FI and this is just rough calculations based on the figures previously noted, but using 0.2 FI per flight would give 558 75 flights from the beginning of this year.

Could not be bothered to work out how many flights 558 did this year so if that high FI usage is correct, which I find totally astonishing with mine and others background in fatigue calculations who have been discussing this (which includes Vulcan by the way), then I can see where the 2 years life being left before further expensive mods are required comes from.

But as I have said before if even 558 uses 1 FI per year then that still leaves 15 year Life left in the structure, 2 FI per year still gives 7.5 years left and I cannot believe that 558 would consume 7 FI a year which would give it the two years FI life being bandied about, even the Tornado I quoted only just makes 1 FI a year , anyway it would appear that there are lots of disparate figures floating around so it is not worth continuing the subject, as I am not one of the current vulcan engineers so I patently no nothing .

[Gully]

Will dig out a rather dodgy old Vulcan video tonight dating from 1992-ish. One of the VDF engineers discusses 558's FI count - from recollection the used indexes were in the order of 120 to 130...

Gully

Edited to add that I couldn't find the video clip I was searching for, but a trawl of the internet located CAA Airworthiness Approval Note 27038 that indicates a recent 10 FI extension of '558's airframe life, taking it to 240.6 FI.

[Xplumberlives]

We could go on wondering where the FI has gone, but if we are told it has gone there is NO bringing it back!

No one seems able to explain it so that we can understand just how the figures are worked out and how it is used up.

We just have to accept that another element of 558 is in rather short supply!

[Sooty655]

We could go on wondering where the FI has gone, but if we are told it has gone there is NO bringing it back!

No one seems able to explain it so that we can understand just how the figures are worked out and how it is used up.

We just have to accept that another element of 558 is in rather short supply!

Not much of a basis on which to be asking for money, is it?

[Xplumberlives]

No!

[Mayfly]

I hold my hands up and admit I'm not in favour of some of the decisions that have been made and could sit here and pull my hair out - but this is the first time I have ever felt really fearful for 558

The bottom line is very simple.....

If you want to see 558 fly/display next year and can afford it DONATE

If you don't care if she never flys/display again keep your hands in your pockets -

What I do know is the air show circuit WILL NOT be a better place wthout her!!!

[Mags]

I hold my hands up and admit I'm not in favour of some of the decisions that have been made and could sit here and pull my hair out - but this is the first time I have ever felt really fearful for 558

The bottom line is very simple.....

If you want to see 558 fly/display next year and can afford it DONATE

If you don't care if she never flys/display again keep your hands in your pockets -

What I do know is the air show circuit WILL NOT be a better place wthout her!!!

Agreed!!!

I can't comment on the thread as I don't have enough knowledge, but I do feel that if 558 gets grounded, it will be such a waste of the hugemungous (is that a word ) efforts of ALL those involved and the same for the financing through the whole process of getting her back in the air - and so far - keeping her there.

Pam - can I sign up for the councelling sessions for the ones with a hole left when 558 departs from us

[Jigsaw]

I hold my hands up and admit I'm not in favour of some of the decisions that have been made and could sit here and pull my hair out - but this is the first time I have ever felt really fearful for 558

The bottom line is very simple.....

If you want to see 558 fly/display next year and can afford it DONATE

If you don't care if she never flys/display again keep your hands in your pockets -

What I do know is the air show circuit WILL NOT be a better place wthout her!!!

Agreed!!!

I can't comment on the thread as I don't have enough knowledge, but I do feel that if 558 gets grounded, it will be such a waste of the hugemungous (is that a word ) efforts of ALL those involved and the same for the financing through the whole process of getting her back in the air - and so far - keeping her there.

Pam - can I sign up for the councelling sessions for the ones with a hole left when 558 departs from us :D

I agree also.

I will come with you.















Truth be known, probably WELL before you and go to sleep

[Mayfly]

Oh is no thread sacred?

[Jigsaw]

=))

Oh is no thread sacred?

Erm.............................................................NOPE

[Xplumberlives]

Scared not SACRED

[Jigsaw]

Scared not SACRED

He has a point. I'll shurrup

[Old Rigger]

I see from various snippets around the bazaars that it is hopefully now 3 years flying left, if funding is forthcoming, and with the revised flying programme this year it would appear this has reduced the fatigue usage by approximately 30%.

So looking good then, so dig deep and lets be positive and ignore the Doom & Gloom news that is going to be splashed all over the media from the new PR company, as Doom & Gloom means money, so I wish them every success and as I have said before, until the fat lady sings the current donations from me will continue.

[Nickolas]

Sep 24, 2010 by Ian Homer. Posted to category: General

A message from Robert Pleming
Dear Supporters,

With three more hugely popular displays now completed – at the Jersey Airshow RAF Leuchars and Bristol Filton - we are approaching the end of another successful air display season for XH558. Based on the spectator numbers provided to us, we estimate that XH558 has been seen by over 1.5million people at the 17 venues she has visited around the UK.

This means that we are also approaching the last of our major revenue-earning flying activities. With currently no other major new funding sources clearly identified, we need to take some decisive actions to ensure that XH558 achieves her destiny of flying in the Diamond Jubilee year.

The Trust’s cash position as we move into the autumn is now very tight. Let the figures speak for themselves. As of 31st August, our income for the ten months since the start of our financial year (1st November 2009) was £1,966,917 against the plan of £2,441,492, a shortfall of over £474,000. Our costs though were lower than expected, at £1,880,915, against the plan of £2,160,760, a difference of £380,000, this despite having completed all the planned engineering investment. Further detail on how these figures are made up maybe seen on the accompanying pie charts. http://www.vulcantothesky.org/how-to-he ... cials.html

We have of course been monitoring how well we have performed over the past year. As regards things that have not gone as well as hoped, our late start in July to the UK air display season, owing to an overrun of our engineering programme, meant that disappointingly XH558 missed a number of profitable air displays in June.

Despite investing heavily in an advertising campaign in various media, we haven’t yet seen any significant return – this is a major concern as we currently don’t know why. Restricted as XH558 currently is to flying in Visual Meteorological Conditions, the loss of the displays over the Bournemouth and Shoreham air display weekend due to poor weather hit us hard, with the loss of over £46,000 in net income.

Certain things we have been forced to delay until 2011, for example the internet-based competition “Ticket to Ride” for a fast taxi in XH558 has had to be held over due to Gambling Commission constraints. Something, certainly in ours sights for next season!

Our Annual Appeal has so far raised £46,296 in the two months it has been running, but this is only about 18% of the £125,000 per month rate needed to reach our target.

On a more positive side, we have had a number of significant successes. XH558’s technical serviceability this year has remained high, largely due to the diligent attentions of our engineering team, so we have been able to satisfy a very high percentage of our air display bookings this year.

Our engineering organisation has now gained some of the formal technical approvals from the CAA necessary to undertake maintenance and rectification activities independent from our Engineering Authority, Marshall Aerospace. This in turn will lead to reduced costs.

The winter servicing programme included the successful embodiment of two fatigue life extension modifications to XH558’s wings. For one of these modifications, it was the first time the modification had been made to a flying Vulcan, the only other time being to the Vulcan Fatigue Test Specimen at Woodford in the 1960s!

The engineering programme this year has actually come in under budget, which confirms that we are managing to keep our costs under control..

Despite a yet more exciting display this year, our aircrew have modified the way they are flying XH558 so as to reduce the rate of consumption of the airframe’s fatigue life by over 30%, thus delaying the inevitable end of her flying career.

On fund-raising and communication to our supporters, the new-look website and email newsletters appear to have gone down well. The 50th Birthday Card signing page has now notched up over 10,500 signatures, each one with a touching comment or message of good wishes for XH558 – a stunning success!

We have re-organised our merchandise and web store, and this part of our activities is now making a significant return for the Trust, with revenues of nearly £60,000 over the past two months.

The Trust’s hospitality presence at Farnborough this year, while pricey, has produced a number of new and significant corporate sponsorship and philanthropy leads, which we are of course continuing to pursue as vigorously as possible, but it is currently impossible to foretell whether any of these will prove fruitful before we finally run out of money.

We know that we need to tell the world about our current situation - yet again – so a new media campaign will commence on Monday with the crisis messages as strong as we can make them. Our website will now be updated with the current status of our activities so that we can all monitor our progress.

We will of course be making it absolutely clear that it would amount to a national travesty if XH558 were not available to be able to fly down the Mall on 4th June 2012 in celebration of Her Majesty the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee, mirroring the Concorde flypast performed on the Queen’s Golden Jubilee.

So how else can we reach out to the British Public?

Over the next few weeks, we will tell you about our plan for the future, taking us through exciting opportunities with XH558, past her expected remaining flying life to planned retirement, and the construction of a lasting legacy to the days when Britain led the world in aviation, by means of an Academy of Engineering Excellence. With a very strong story to tell, it is hoped that we can capture the support of a wide audience.

We now look forward with mixed feeling to the last planned public sortie of XH558’s 2010 flying season, to participate in the “Help for Heroes” fly-in at Coventry Airport on 26th September, hoping that it will not turn out to be the final public appearance of her second flying career.

There is one final sortie currently planned, on Wednesday 29th September, when XH558 flies with the Blades aerobatic team at Sywell, who will be carrying the winners of this year’s Children in Need competition.

On the subject of competitions, you now have just hours left in our Raffle and Auction - aimed at releasing two additional seats on the Blades aircraft alongside XH558 on this flight. In mid October, we will also Auction off on ebay many items of memorabilia and parts, all aimed at raising funds. Look out for news in forthcoming newsletters by making sure you are subscribed to our e-mail list from the “Sign-up”button of the Home Page.

One further thought, about the extended Vulcan to the Sky team, including our eleven employees, the aircrew, volunteers, Club members and those who support XH558 in companies round the UK. All members of this extended team have worked extremely hard, firstly to return XH558 to the air, and since then to keep XH558 flying for the public. On behalf of all of you who are reading this, I would like to pay tribute to this unique team’s unstinting efforts in making real the vision of a flying XH558.

We have a huge fight on our hands to keep XH558 funded. If we fail, we’ll lose a treasured national icon forever. With the current commemorations of the 70th Anniversary of the Battle of Britain in mind, I’m counting on you to join the rest of the team in fighting the battle for XH558, the Spirit of Great Britain.



Robert Pleming

Vulcan to the Sky Trust

Getting a bit more forthright in what's going on and what it's costing.

Apart from the 'This could be the last time' (apologies to the Rolling Stones) message there are several references to how the project has become more financially 'lean' good to hear the GC are getting qualified so there is less dependence on MA to sign things off.

Much more +ve than I was expecting.

Very honest and open IMHO. Makes me feel more inclined to raid the boys money boxes and donate........

[Xplumberlives]

Yes I agree, much more positive than I was expecting! Let's hope it is realistic to hope she may continue to fly.

One point from the TVOC Message from Dr. Pleming;

We will of course be making it absolutely clear that it would amount to a national travesty if XH558 were not available to be able to fly down the Mall on 4th June 2012 in celebration of Her Majesty the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee, mirroring the Concorde flypast performed on the Queen’s Golden Jubilee.

Have the CAA actually given permision for this flight to take place, I thought 558 was not allowed over London?

[Checkflaps]

Still think it is a no no. But having spoken to Taff at lecture, there is one avenue to persue which relates to permit aircraft flying over London. If they restrict the permit aircraft to 'only complex permit aircraft can fly over London' it won't drastically change the rules and will restrict permit flights over London to 1 aircraft - the Vulcan. Ultimately may be for nothing, but worth a shot.

Garry

[Mayfly]

The whole problem is that Permit to Fly rules & regs were not intended to cover complex a/c - I said years ago what they need to do is rewrite the rules - however with 558 really being the ONLY complex a/c ever likely to grace the skies there doesn't appear to be much point and I would imagine the red tape involved it would take years anyway.

I asked Dr Bob the same question back in March at the Club Day - Have the CAA rules changed then? - he seems determined to see 558 fly over London at some point!!

If anyone can manage to get her there he will!!

[PhantomAviator]

The whole problem is that Permit to Fly rules & regs were not intended to cover complex a/c - I said years ago what they need to do is rewrite the rules - however with 558 really being the ONLY complex a/c ever likely to grace the skies there doesn't appear to be much point and I would imagine the red tape involved it would take years anyway.

I asked Dr Bob the same question back in March at the Club Day - Have the CAA rules changed then? - he seems determined to see 558 fly over London at some point!!

If anyone can manage to get her there he will!!

Way back when it was still return to flight the target was to have her fly down the Mall for the Falklands anniversary.
I seem to remember then that it was discussed and the suspected outcome would have been a definitive NO.
This was apparently re-iterated after the event had come and gone.

I would like to say though that the weather forecast at the moment would be showing that she will have good weather for her farewell flight on sunday.

But the question has stilll not been answered as to where she will be hangared over the winter.
Or is that another 'We are hoping that...'?

Then the next is who is going to fund a this proposed museum?

Just thought of a fund raiser.

Selling the mushrooms the higher ups keep giving to the supporters and the engineers.

[Xplumberlives]

Whoever accepts her for the winter, may end up with her permanently then!

[Checkflaps]

So, basically, if 558 flies down the Mall, it might as well be at about 50ft and then into a power climb as it would have broken almost every rule in the book and she would be grounded - if you're gonna break the rules, do it with style I say (visions of a hunter and tower bridge spring to mind).

I still think it funny how the Vulcan, with 4 engines, is not as safe as a Hawk with 1. Yes I know Hawks have a good glide rate and that the vulcan is fully electrical, but.......... oh, it'll never happen

Garry

[Gully]

The whole problem is that Permit to Fly rules & regs were not intended to cover complex a/c - I said years ago what they need to do is rewrite the rules - however with 558 really being the ONLY complex a/c ever likely to grace the skies there doesn't appear to be much point and I would imagine the red tape involved it would take years anyway.

I asked Dr Bob the same question back in March at the Club Day - Have the CAA rules changed then? - he seems determined to see 558 fly over London at some point!!

If anyone can manage to get her there he will!!

I seem to recall that Dr Bob went on to indicate that the rules had previously been relaxed to allow Sally B to take part in a Mall flypast and that VTTS were receiving favourable indications of a similar arrangement. If the CAA says 'yes', then it's just finding the insurance premium!! Again, though, if Ellie S managed it, I'm sure VTTS has the wherewithall to do so.

Gully

[Xplumberlives]

I think Elly Sallingboe could teach TVOC a lot!